(More) Riders On the Storm
Aug. 29th, 2008 10:57 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ed_rexI'm a smart boy and love to be right. In '79, I argued with my dad about the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. "It'll be their Vietnam," I said and my dad, a smart man but one sometimes given to romanticism, said no, the Russians want to free Afgan women, they want to spread literacy — they're going to win this thing.
I was 14 years old and knew nothing of the barbarism of Muslim fundamentalism; but I did know that you can't impose civilization through the barrel of a gun, especially when "civilization" is utterly entwined with Great Power imperialism.
Frankly, if I'd known then what I know now, I'd have hoped to be wrong; but that hope wouldn't have changed my prediction.
And so it is now: I really hope I'm wrong about what I think will happen during the November presidential elections in the United States of America.
Relatively speaking, I like Barack Obama. Among a tiny minority of US senators, he voted against the American invasion of Iraq, at the time an act of great political courage. He strikes me as a man of integrity and intelligence; a political realist but not a cynic. I think an Obama presidency would be good for the United States and for the world.
But he's not going to win the election.
He's not even going to come close.
Back during one of the early primaries, I predicted he was going to beat Clinton ("Hillary" to those of you who call some public figures by their first name and others by their last). I said that America had changed, and race was no longer the factor it once was.
I was wrong. Race is no longer (much of) a factor for Democrat activists. Towards the end of the primaries, after it was clear that Clinton couldn't win, but before she dropped out, I began to wonder about the US as a whole and, quietly, began to think there was no way Obama could be elected president.
A recent poll convinced me I was right. John McCain's cynical but brilliant choice of a woman, as his running-mate was the master-stroke.
If the CNN story, that 30% of Clinton's supporters are going to vote for McCain, is true (or even close to it), Obama doesn't have a chance in hell.
The elephant in the room is race, is skin colour. Half-white, Barack Obama is still "black" and there are one hell of a lot of Americans who — no matter what they say in public or even what they tell themselves — will be unable to pull a lever for a "nigger" as president.
Couple that with the aging second-generation cohort of feminists who thought — it's time, damn it! — that Hillary Clinton was going to take the White House on behalf of the "second sex" and who will vote for anyone but Obama out of spite, and the fix is on.
McCain may be a liar; McCain may not know much about the economy; McCain might even be in the early stages of senility, but he's not black — he's white.
And the United States' racial divide will reveal itself in the voting booth. John McCain is going to have the largest presidential landslide since the war criminal, common criminal and general liar Richard Nixon destroyed George McGovern is '72.
This will be a disaster for the people of the United States and for the people of the world. I don't want it to happen. But unless McCain has a stroke onstage during one of the presidential debates, he's going to walk away with the election.
By naming a woman as his running-mate, he's guaranteed it.
I haven't yet watched Obama's acceptance speech; once I have, it's conceivable I'll take back everything I said above.
And I hope I do.
But I'm not holding my breath.
God help us all.
I was 14 years old and knew nothing of the barbarism of Muslim fundamentalism; but I did know that you can't impose civilization through the barrel of a gun, especially when "civilization" is utterly entwined with Great Power imperialism.
Frankly, if I'd known then what I know now, I'd have hoped to be wrong; but that hope wouldn't have changed my prediction.
And so it is now: I really hope I'm wrong about what I think will happen during the November presidential elections in the United States of America.
Relatively speaking, I like Barack Obama. Among a tiny minority of US senators, he voted against the American invasion of Iraq, at the time an act of great political courage. He strikes me as a man of integrity and intelligence; a political realist but not a cynic. I think an Obama presidency would be good for the United States and for the world.
But he's not going to win the election.
He's not even going to come close.
Back during one of the early primaries, I predicted he was going to beat Clinton ("Hillary" to those of you who call some public figures by their first name and others by their last). I said that America had changed, and race was no longer the factor it once was.
I was wrong. Race is no longer (much of) a factor for Democrat activists. Towards the end of the primaries, after it was clear that Clinton couldn't win, but before she dropped out, I began to wonder about the US as a whole and, quietly, began to think there was no way Obama could be elected president.
A recent poll convinced me I was right. John McCain's cynical but brilliant choice of a woman, as his running-mate was the master-stroke.
If the CNN story, that 30% of Clinton's supporters are going to vote for McCain, is true (or even close to it), Obama doesn't have a chance in hell.
The elephant in the room is race, is skin colour. Half-white, Barack Obama is still "black" and there are one hell of a lot of Americans who — no matter what they say in public or even what they tell themselves — will be unable to pull a lever for a "nigger" as president.
Couple that with the aging second-generation cohort of feminists who thought — it's time, damn it! — that Hillary Clinton was going to take the White House on behalf of the "second sex" and who will vote for anyone but Obama out of spite, and the fix is on.
McCain may be a liar; McCain may not know much about the economy; McCain might even be in the early stages of senility, but he's not black — he's white.
And the United States' racial divide will reveal itself in the voting booth. John McCain is going to have the largest presidential landslide since the war criminal, common criminal and general liar Richard Nixon destroyed George McGovern is '72.
This will be a disaster for the people of the United States and for the people of the world. I don't want it to happen. But unless McCain has a stroke onstage during one of the presidential debates, he's going to walk away with the election.
By naming a woman as his running-mate, he's guaranteed it.
I haven't yet watched Obama's acceptance speech; once I have, it's conceivable I'll take back everything I said above.
And I hope I do.
But I'm not holding my breath.
God help us all.
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
(no subject)
Date: 2008-08-30 03:39 am (UTC)I Hope So
Date: 2008-08-30 05:28 am (UTC)Wow
Date: 2008-08-30 09:09 pm (UTC)I just might have to eat my words — and if so, I doubt I'll ever again be so pleased to be wrong.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-08-30 03:53 am (UTC)Regardless, I don't think either candidate will be president.
Kind of a weird statement right?
I'm bookmarking this entry and I advise you to 'save as memory'.
I have spoken. Dunh dunh dunh.
God *Damn* It!
Date: 2008-08-30 05:27 am (UTC)Re: God *Damn* It!
Date: 2008-08-30 05:49 am (UTC)Regardless of who wins, or rather, neither winning, I'm of the opinion that Obama is truly inspirational. I've never been taken aback by a politician's speech. Whenever he speaks I get all girly. Conversely, McCain is a solid character as well -- as far as THOSE people are concerned.
Re: God *Damn* It!
Date: 2008-08-30 09:39 pm (UTC)McCain is a solid character as well -- as far as THOSE people are concerned.
I think Obama's main chance will come during the debates — if McCain is as out-of-it as I've been reading, there's some chance he'll scare even the true believers. (Yes, I live on hope sometimes.)
The Other Elephant In the Corner
Date: 2008-08-30 09:10 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2008-08-30 07:48 am (UTC)Seriously? Yes (Mostly)
Date: 2008-08-30 09:19 pm (UTC)The United States can be a powerful force for good in the world (no matter that I don't think it will give up its imperalism entirely — incremental improvement is a far sight better that reactionary power-politics played by a wounded animal), or for evil.
There's no question in my mind that a McCain presidency will see the US continue on its the destructive path (destructive both to the world and to the United States; the only thing worse than naked imperial aggression is incompetent naked imperial aggression).
Having now watched Obama's acceptance speech, I'm convinced his presidency would mark a genuine, positive change for the US, both internally and externally. (And — by god! — can that man give a stirring speech!)
Why do you "actively dislike" Obama?
Re: Seriously? Yes (Mostly)
Date: 2008-08-31 01:50 am (UTC)I'm actually surprised Obama's supporters don't find it insulting that he doesn't even have the decency to pull a bait-and-switch on them — the usual move for riding any kind of left-wing vote — but instead simultaneously trumpets one kind of political action and proposes another.
Re: Seriously? Yes (Mostly)
Date: 2008-08-31 07:26 pm (UTC)I can see that. If he actually does destroy my credibility as a prognosticator on American politics and win the election, he's going to have a hell of a job ahead of him to not disappoint those who believe the tone of his rhetoric, rather than the substance of his policies.
That said, after the Bush disaster, simply running a competent government that goes some way to actually serving the people, rather than lining the pockets of cronies might be enough to at least half-way bridge that divide.
By design and both for good and for bad, the American political system is not one that is easy to change and there's only so much a President can do.
Re: Seriously? Yes (Mostly)
Date: 2008-09-02 04:56 pm (UTC)I'm guessing that, if he wins, Obama will lock into the usual Democrat-in-the-white-house M.O.: get called a turncoat after failing to wield absolute power. I suppose voters currently worshiping Obama might want to calculate whether they're likely to be happier with their preferred candidate disappointing them ("But you said you were so awesome that all other conceptions of American government would melt before you!") or with their non-preferred candidate failing to make their apocalyptic fears a reality — for the exact same reasons.
Re: Seriously? Yes (Mostly)
Date: 2008-09-02 09:27 pm (UTC)There is one important exception to that statement, which is why the bellicosity of McCain worries me as a citizen of the world, and not just a (critical) friend of the United States. Namely, the fact that your Congress has more or less de facto abrogated to the President the responsibility for making war.
Which is why I don't think the "apocalyptic fears" of McCain's detractors are quite a ludicrous as you do.
Re: Seriously? Yes (Mostly)
Date: 2008-09-03 12:32 am (UTC)And even if any given presidential power was made absolute, I'm sure it wouldn't make any given candidate look much more appealing to me. It would, however, make anyone gunning for the office less appealing to me on a personal level. Like whatsisname said, I want the president to be someone who has to be dragged kicking and screaming to the White House.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-08-30 11:16 am (UTC)However, my comfort is, even McCain will be better than Bush. I hope.
Here's Hoping We're Both Wrong!
Date: 2008-08-30 09:22 pm (UTC)I just watched the acceptance speech and was very impressed by the way he dealt with the race issue — by alluding to it without explicitly mentioning it and by using his background in such a way as to make it inclusive — to any American who feels or is in some ways disenfranchised.
I really, really hope were wrong on this one.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-08-30 11:24 am (UTC)BTW, I don't think Obama voted against the war. He certainly spoke against it publicly, but wasn't yet in the Senate when the initial vote was taken. And when he did join the Senate he voted, on more than one occasion to continue funding it.
A Master-Stroke
Date: 2008-08-30 09:28 pm (UTC)Young to McCain's old, she's photogenic, a gun-toting anti-abortionist — yet she's, well, a she. That's going to be a hell of an inducement for those Clinton supporters who are thinking of going Republican.
I disagree with you on the troop-surge. It hasn't solved anything, but merely put the lid on things for a while. The insurgents are just biding their time. And soon as the US "declares victory" and leaves, the civil war there will be back big time.
And thanks, you're right that he didn't vote against the war — he was still in state government at the time, not federal. But he did speak out against it, much to his credit.
And when he did join the Senate he voted, on more than one occasion to continue funding it.
Bloody hell. Are you sure about that?
Re: A Master-Stroke
Date: 2008-08-31 04:34 am (UTC)I'm not claiming that the troop surge worked but I am claiming that there is a fairly widely held *perception* that it worked.
Afraid so, see, for example, http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/03/22/obama_defends_votes_in_favor_of_iraq_funding/
Re: A Master-Stroke
Date: 2008-08-31 06:00 pm (UTC)[Edit]
I'm not claiming that the troop surge worked but I am claiming that there is a fairly widely held *perception* that it worked.
We're in agreement on that, then. Thanks for the clarification.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-08-30 12:47 pm (UTC)How many beer was this fuelled by? Not saying you don't have something there, just wondering how to calibrate your comments.
No Beers
Date: 2008-08-30 09:31 pm (UTC)As I've said in other comments, I've just watched the acceptance speech and now really hope I was wrong. There were moments when, alone in my office and staring at the computer screen, I found myself clapping.
Now, if only Jack Layton can channel some of that ...
(no subject)
Date: 2008-08-30 01:24 pm (UTC)Don't Know Much 'Bout Geography ...
Date: 2008-08-30 09:32 pm (UTC)Re: Don't Know Much 'Bout Geography ...
Date: 2008-08-30 09:48 pm (UTC)Glad to see your calm and considerate comments. (Darn near had to turn the volume way down on local talk radio -- all along the ideological spectrum-- yesterday.)
Told my father a couple of months ago that Palin might be the VP pick. He's an ardent Democrat, and said that would be "a nice gesture."
I'd like to think you're not correct about 'closet racism' in the USA, but thinking of certain relatives of mine -- not my Dad -- you gotta wonder . . .
Been discussing this issue at length with a young Black writer friend, who is, wouldn't you know, all for Obama. Thing is, I'd be adamantly against Obama's election no matter what his color, and for any of a dozen potent reasons.
His often-shifting position, which half the time is for pulling the plug on NASA, is a relevant one. (I'd thought "but what about our problems here at home?" was answered years ago, but apparently not in Obama's mind.)
As for the obligatory CYA element, there are Black politicians I'd be happy to vote for, for example JC Watts.
Re: Don't Know Much 'Bout Geography ...
Date: 2008-08-30 10:03 pm (UTC)I certainly didn't mean to imply that everyone who supports McCain is a racist, closeted or otherwise, but only that an unfortunate percentage of the population is. (Mind you, I wonder how many closet sexists will look at the genuinely inexperienced Palin and decide that she is way too few heartbeats away from the Oval Office.
Good grief. You guys are going to have either a white woman as Veep or a black man as president.
There's no denying the world is changing, is there?
As for Obama, I confess I don't know all that much about the specifics of his policies. I'm not happy to learn that he's even contemplating going after NASA, despite that organization's many flaws. If it were in my hands, you guys would really be going back to the moon and on to Mars.
As for the obligatory CYA element...
"CYA element"? Wat dat?
Re: Don't Know Much 'Bout Geography ...
Date: 2008-08-31 03:20 am (UTC)It stands for Cover Your Ass.
One can always check the Acronym Finder. (I use it a lot.) In brief, Americans have become enamored of Political Correctness to the point folks really do have to Watch What They Say. It's pretty much instinctive by this point, and one often uses 'preemptive' statements to deflate the expected suspicions.
So I point this up by doing it aloud, so to speak.
Me, a racist? Nahhh. (In truth, my wife is a non-white immigrant, so if anyone called me that it would probably fall flat, but not necessarily.)
One reason Obama is neck-and-neck with McCain in the polls (when in every recent election, the Democrat was far ahead at this stage), is that people have gotten past his soaring rhetoric and begun to examine the specifics. You cannot please everyone!
(Our election races being vastly longer than Canada's, folks habitually wait until the final weeks, if they bother at all.)
I'm a non-typical policy wonk, who actually did work in Washington, DC for 8 months.
Re: Don't Know Much 'Bout Geography ...
Date: 2008-08-31 03:26 am (UTC)Shallow? You bet it is.
Bad joke follows: Welcome to the modern world of the universal franchise.
Re: Don't Know Much 'Bout Geography ...
Date: 2008-08-31 06:08 pm (UTC)Yeah, that just makes you a racist in denial. :)
One reason Obama is neck-and-neck with McCain in the polls (when in every recent election, the Democrat was far ahead at this stage), is that people have gotten past his soaring rhetoric and begun to examine the specifics.
Granted. And I admit that I haven't done my home-work in terms of policy. As a Canadian — and one on the left of this country's political spectrum, to boot — my main concerns are with such big-picture questions as whether Obama is more or less likely than McCain to, say, start more wars of aggression or continue to ignore (what I believe is) the fact of global warming and habitat destruction. (And I'd like to know how McCain intends to end the US's dependence on foreign oil — it sounds like an awfully tall order, although I suppose getting to the moon in a decade also sounded close to impossible in 1960.)
All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-08-31 01:43 pm (UTC)Anyway, I hope that Obama wins. He is the best candidate on every single platform that matters to me. (although I have yet to see about his foreign relations)
And that Alaskan lady that McCain got would be a terrible vice president. I would be disgusted if women just voted for her just to support their fellow xx.
If gender is such a huge issue why doesn't Obama get Hilary or another completely capable woman as his vice president?
And as far as race is concerned, whenever one of my friends(oh I only have one friend...nevermind) says anything about Obama in praise/etc, just to be annoying, I say, "For christ's sake, he's not even black!" Because I don't see Obama is black at all. Sure he's dark skinned but that's not what really matters. Behind a lot of dark skinned individuals in America there is a contempt for white people, a culture that as a good voting citizen would not vote for. So no, I would not elect a black president because he or she would not be supporting my interests for education and economy, etc. But when I use the term 'black' I am not referring to skin color but the far end of an extremist culture.
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-08-31 05:31 pm (UTC)*** easily swayed religious, mildly uneducated people who know little to nothing about the world outside of their own. and since most of these people reside in the South ***
Umm, have you ever actually been to the South? Lived there for any length of time? This is not 1955, nor is all the South an Ozarks 'holler.' Overt racism is now stronger in many northeastern cities.
Interesting view on what is "Black" or not. Apologies, but I'm not certain I understand you fully.
There are immigrants from southern India who have more melanin than Obama, yet folks won't call them Black. Then look at Obama's buddy Rev. Pfleger. He looks like a middle-aged white guy, but to hear him preach you'd never know it.
Never boring, that's for sure.
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-08-31 07:53 pm (UTC)Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-09-01 01:56 am (UTC)http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e2/ElectoralCollege2004.svg
and when I say South I am of course not referring to the West coast either.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think that all republicans are giving the god vote. I love the kind of socially liberal republican with a firm belief in the free market* and maybe I would be more inclined to vote republican if this were the kind of person who ended up on the republican ballot. What am I saying? Perhaps religion is part of the problem. Believe it or not, some Americans don’t think that Obama is Christian… http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9761.html
^ that was taken a few months ago so more people have probably found out a
Then the question is if a person who happens to be very religious, accepts the faith of both candidates and not racist at all why would they choose McCain over Obama? Because McCain has catered to those people, he has promised to continue the war on terrorism. Bush’s unconditional support of Israel comes from the Bible. Treat God’s children well and God will treat you well. Obama just gives off a more secular air than McCain, in my opinion. Of course since the overly religious tend to be Republicans, they tend to vote Republican regardless of whom the candidates are because the candidates stand for their good Republican values.
Perhaps I should adjust my terminology since the Civil war was fought on the slavery/racism issue. I like this term though because of the general use of the term civil war which in our case is constantly being fought with filibusters, negotiating and vicious political campaigns, etc. Ahh well. Maybe I will think of something
I do agree with you on the point that the North is racist, I live in a city which is notorious for its racism.
*since economics is such an uncertain field, my opinions of what is best for the economy sway with time and knowledge.
Of course of most the discriminating I have seen most of it is based not on color of skin but of culture. That’s why kids these days have the terms oreo, banana and egg. (I have actually been donned an egg by an Asian friend…)
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-08-31 06:19 pm (UTC)If gender is such a huge issue why doesn't Obama get Hilary or another completely capable woman as his vice president?
My suspicion is that the Clintons are seen as so polarizing — a lot of Republicans and (presumably) independents viscerally loathe the Clintons — that Obama's circle decided that having her as the Vice-Presidential candidate would have been a net vote-loser.
As for your definition of "black", I presume you're talking about "gangsta" culture and (maybe) black activists?
In any case, I call Obama "black" rather than bi-racial because, while the latter is technically true, in our (North American) political culture, half-white still "means" black. It's unfair, it's racist, but it's how most of think, unfortunately.
If only for the sake of clear communication, I think you should find another term for the extremist culture you currently call "black".
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-08-31 11:05 pm (UTC)That 'gangsta' culture only dominates with poor inner-city Black kids. Many many more have grown beyond such things. Those who have not, suffer, with its glorification of guns and fast living, and prohibition against "snitching," even in murder cases.
But the purveyors of 'gangsta rap' get most of their money from stupid well-off White kids, who then inflict it upon quiet suburban streets.
I'm not just blowing smoke. A buddy of mine, a graphic artist, created some of the most controversial 'cover art' around, such as an album that showed the rapper Paris getting ready to assassinate President Bush. (Then-Prez Bush 41.)
Trouble is, he later got sick of the shallowness of it all, and the many actual deaths. But by then, their party lifestyle had ruined his own life . . .
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-09-02 09:34 pm (UTC)Here in Toronto the problem tends to be located more in the "exurbs" than downtown, but I take your point about it being limited to a relatively small under-class.
But the purveyors of 'gangsta rap' get most of their money from stupid well-off White kids, who then inflict it upon quiet suburban streets.
I'm reminded of the time a friend of mine's then-16-year-old son — one sadly quite enamoured of hip-hop culture — met my ex-girlfriend.
He was neither impressed nor disturbed by the fact she was only three years older than him, but his impression of my "coolness" went up quite a few notches because she was "black" (technically bi-racial).
Fortunately, he seems to be moving beyond his love for the primitive, violence-loving aspects of that sub-culture. (Though I have to note, there is some amazingrap, or hip-hop, music out there!)
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-09-01 02:07 am (UTC)All my parents chose Clinton over Obama in the primaries because she is stronger on the foreign policy. Nuclear war is a huge issue.
"Iran, Cuba, Venezuela - these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don't pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us. And yet we were willing to talk to the Soviet Union at the time when they were saying, 'We're going to wipe you off the planet.'" -Obama
Can you believe he actually said that?
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-09-01 03:21 am (UTC)Black and Religious Cultures
Date: 2008-09-01 04:21 am (UTC)Huh. Give those kids one real dose of hard-assed persecution, bet they'd change their tune reaaallllll fast.
(I can speak from harrowing personal experience. Racism is not the only type of prejudice.)
Jade writes,
*** this culture of people who live in their own world and vote based on their religious beliefs which in this country happen to be Christian extremists. ***
We are all comfortable in our own beliefs/understandings/traditions, and (when possible) hang out with folks who think/act alike. We begin to assume that *we* are normal and correct, while "they" are uninformed at best.
I've been holding a spirited debate with a Vegan lady, a supporter of PETA, in a small (but widespread) newsletter. (I posted part of the exchange on my LJ blog.) At one point I compared her beliefs to a pagan religion. PETA is awful short on scientific literacy, and yet holds forth with as much fervor as any Southern Baptist.
They want to make converts, change the secular laws, and have a few extremists who resort to violence. (Sound familiar?)
Then there's your Dawkins-brand outspoken atheists, except they tend to criticize a stilted and cartoonish 'version' of actual religions.
Also, there are dedicated adherents of dozens of other causes and ideologies and belief systems. What a country we have!
Mind you, each one of them "obviously" had The Truth on their side, and they'll gather the forces of science and sacred words to bolster 'em.