(More) Riders On the Storm
Aug. 29th, 2008 10:57 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ed_rexI'm a smart boy and love to be right. In '79, I argued with my dad about the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. "It'll be their Vietnam," I said and my dad, a smart man but one sometimes given to romanticism, said no, the Russians want to free Afgan women, they want to spread literacy — they're going to win this thing.
I was 14 years old and knew nothing of the barbarism of Muslim fundamentalism; but I did know that you can't impose civilization through the barrel of a gun, especially when "civilization" is utterly entwined with Great Power imperialism.
Frankly, if I'd known then what I know now, I'd have hoped to be wrong; but that hope wouldn't have changed my prediction.
And so it is now: I really hope I'm wrong about what I think will happen during the November presidential elections in the United States of America.
Relatively speaking, I like Barack Obama. Among a tiny minority of US senators, he voted against the American invasion of Iraq, at the time an act of great political courage. He strikes me as a man of integrity and intelligence; a political realist but not a cynic. I think an Obama presidency would be good for the United States and for the world.
But he's not going to win the election.
He's not even going to come close.
Back during one of the early primaries, I predicted he was going to beat Clinton ("Hillary" to those of you who call some public figures by their first name and others by their last). I said that America had changed, and race was no longer the factor it once was.
I was wrong. Race is no longer (much of) a factor for Democrat activists. Towards the end of the primaries, after it was clear that Clinton couldn't win, but before she dropped out, I began to wonder about the US as a whole and, quietly, began to think there was no way Obama could be elected president.
A recent poll convinced me I was right. John McCain's cynical but brilliant choice of a woman, as his running-mate was the master-stroke.
If the CNN story, that 30% of Clinton's supporters are going to vote for McCain, is true (or even close to it), Obama doesn't have a chance in hell.
The elephant in the room is race, is skin colour. Half-white, Barack Obama is still "black" and there are one hell of a lot of Americans who — no matter what they say in public or even what they tell themselves — will be unable to pull a lever for a "nigger" as president.
Couple that with the aging second-generation cohort of feminists who thought — it's time, damn it! — that Hillary Clinton was going to take the White House on behalf of the "second sex" and who will vote for anyone but Obama out of spite, and the fix is on.
McCain may be a liar; McCain may not know much about the economy; McCain might even be in the early stages of senility, but he's not black — he's white.
And the United States' racial divide will reveal itself in the voting booth. John McCain is going to have the largest presidential landslide since the war criminal, common criminal and general liar Richard Nixon destroyed George McGovern is '72.
This will be a disaster for the people of the United States and for the people of the world. I don't want it to happen. But unless McCain has a stroke onstage during one of the presidential debates, he's going to walk away with the election.
By naming a woman as his running-mate, he's guaranteed it.
I haven't yet watched Obama's acceptance speech; once I have, it's conceivable I'll take back everything I said above.
And I hope I do.
But I'm not holding my breath.
God help us all.
I was 14 years old and knew nothing of the barbarism of Muslim fundamentalism; but I did know that you can't impose civilization through the barrel of a gun, especially when "civilization" is utterly entwined with Great Power imperialism.
Frankly, if I'd known then what I know now, I'd have hoped to be wrong; but that hope wouldn't have changed my prediction.
And so it is now: I really hope I'm wrong about what I think will happen during the November presidential elections in the United States of America.
Relatively speaking, I like Barack Obama. Among a tiny minority of US senators, he voted against the American invasion of Iraq, at the time an act of great political courage. He strikes me as a man of integrity and intelligence; a political realist but not a cynic. I think an Obama presidency would be good for the United States and for the world.
But he's not going to win the election.
He's not even going to come close.
Back during one of the early primaries, I predicted he was going to beat Clinton ("Hillary" to those of you who call some public figures by their first name and others by their last). I said that America had changed, and race was no longer the factor it once was.
I was wrong. Race is no longer (much of) a factor for Democrat activists. Towards the end of the primaries, after it was clear that Clinton couldn't win, but before she dropped out, I began to wonder about the US as a whole and, quietly, began to think there was no way Obama could be elected president.
A recent poll convinced me I was right. John McCain's cynical but brilliant choice of a woman, as his running-mate was the master-stroke.
If the CNN story, that 30% of Clinton's supporters are going to vote for McCain, is true (or even close to it), Obama doesn't have a chance in hell.
The elephant in the room is race, is skin colour. Half-white, Barack Obama is still "black" and there are one hell of a lot of Americans who — no matter what they say in public or even what they tell themselves — will be unable to pull a lever for a "nigger" as president.
Couple that with the aging second-generation cohort of feminists who thought — it's time, damn it! — that Hillary Clinton was going to take the White House on behalf of the "second sex" and who will vote for anyone but Obama out of spite, and the fix is on.
McCain may be a liar; McCain may not know much about the economy; McCain might even be in the early stages of senility, but he's not black — he's white.
And the United States' racial divide will reveal itself in the voting booth. John McCain is going to have the largest presidential landslide since the war criminal, common criminal and general liar Richard Nixon destroyed George McGovern is '72.
This will be a disaster for the people of the United States and for the people of the world. I don't want it to happen. But unless McCain has a stroke onstage during one of the presidential debates, he's going to walk away with the election.
By naming a woman as his running-mate, he's guaranteed it.
I haven't yet watched Obama's acceptance speech; once I have, it's conceivable I'll take back everything I said above.
And I hope I do.
But I'm not holding my breath.
God help us all.
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Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-08-31 06:19 pm (UTC)If gender is such a huge issue why doesn't Obama get Hilary or another completely capable woman as his vice president?
My suspicion is that the Clintons are seen as so polarizing — a lot of Republicans and (presumably) independents viscerally loathe the Clintons — that Obama's circle decided that having her as the Vice-Presidential candidate would have been a net vote-loser.
As for your definition of "black", I presume you're talking about "gangsta" culture and (maybe) black activists?
In any case, I call Obama "black" rather than bi-racial because, while the latter is technically true, in our (North American) political culture, half-white still "means" black. It's unfair, it's racist, but it's how most of think, unfortunately.
If only for the sake of clear communication, I think you should find another term for the extremist culture you currently call "black".
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-08-31 11:05 pm (UTC)That 'gangsta' culture only dominates with poor inner-city Black kids. Many many more have grown beyond such things. Those who have not, suffer, with its glorification of guns and fast living, and prohibition against "snitching," even in murder cases.
But the purveyors of 'gangsta rap' get most of their money from stupid well-off White kids, who then inflict it upon quiet suburban streets.
I'm not just blowing smoke. A buddy of mine, a graphic artist, created some of the most controversial 'cover art' around, such as an album that showed the rapper Paris getting ready to assassinate President Bush. (Then-Prez Bush 41.)
Trouble is, he later got sick of the shallowness of it all, and the many actual deaths. But by then, their party lifestyle had ruined his own life . . .
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-09-02 09:34 pm (UTC)Here in Toronto the problem tends to be located more in the "exurbs" than downtown, but I take your point about it being limited to a relatively small under-class.
But the purveyors of 'gangsta rap' get most of their money from stupid well-off White kids, who then inflict it upon quiet suburban streets.
I'm reminded of the time a friend of mine's then-16-year-old son — one sadly quite enamoured of hip-hop culture — met my ex-girlfriend.
He was neither impressed nor disturbed by the fact she was only three years older than him, but his impression of my "coolness" went up quite a few notches because she was "black" (technically bi-racial).
Fortunately, he seems to be moving beyond his love for the primitive, violence-loving aspects of that sub-culture. (Though I have to note, there is some amazingrap, or hip-hop, music out there!)
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-09-01 02:07 am (UTC)All my parents chose Clinton over Obama in the primaries because she is stronger on the foreign policy. Nuclear war is a huge issue.
"Iran, Cuba, Venezuela - these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don't pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us. And yet we were willing to talk to the Soviet Union at the time when they were saying, 'We're going to wipe you off the planet.'" -Obama
Can you believe he actually said that?
Re: All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama
Date: 2008-09-01 03:21 am (UTC)Black and Religious Cultures
Date: 2008-09-01 04:21 am (UTC)Huh. Give those kids one real dose of hard-assed persecution, bet they'd change their tune reaaallllll fast.
(I can speak from harrowing personal experience. Racism is not the only type of prejudice.)
Jade writes,
*** this culture of people who live in their own world and vote based on their religious beliefs which in this country happen to be Christian extremists. ***
We are all comfortable in our own beliefs/understandings/traditions, and (when possible) hang out with folks who think/act alike. We begin to assume that *we* are normal and correct, while "they" are uninformed at best.
I've been holding a spirited debate with a Vegan lady, a supporter of PETA, in a small (but widespread) newsletter. (I posted part of the exchange on my LJ blog.) At one point I compared her beliefs to a pagan religion. PETA is awful short on scientific literacy, and yet holds forth with as much fervor as any Southern Baptist.
They want to make converts, change the secular laws, and have a few extremists who resort to violence. (Sound familiar?)
Then there's your Dawkins-brand outspoken atheists, except they tend to criticize a stilted and cartoonish 'version' of actual religions.
Also, there are dedicated adherents of dozens of other causes and ideologies and belief systems. What a country we have!
Mind you, each one of them "obviously" had The Truth on their side, and they'll gather the forces of science and sacred words to bolster 'em.