(More) Riders On the Storm

[ed_rex]

I'm a smart boy and love to be right. In '79, I argued with my dad about the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. "It'll be their Vietnam," I said and my dad, a smart man but one sometimes given to romanticism, said no, the Russians want to free Afgan women, they want to spread literacy — they're going to win this thing.

I was 14 years old and knew nothing of the barbarism of Muslim fundamentalism; but I did know that you can't impose civilization through the barrel of a gun, especially when "civilization" is utterly entwined with Great Power imperialism.

Frankly, if I'd known then what I know now, I'd have hoped to be wrong; but that hope wouldn't have changed my prediction.

And so it is now: I really hope I'm wrong about what I think will happen during the November presidential elections in the United States of America.

Relatively speaking, I like Barack Obama. Among a tiny minority of US senators, he voted against the American invasion of Iraq, at the time an act of great political courage. He strikes me as a man of integrity and intelligence; a political realist but not a cynic. I think an Obama presidency would be good for the United States and for the world.

But he's not going to win the election.

He's not even going to come close.

Back during one of the early primaries, I predicted he was going to beat Clinton ("Hillary" to those of you who call some public figures by their first name and others by their last). I said that America had changed, and race was no longer the factor it once was.

I was wrong. Race is no longer (much of) a factor for Democrat activists. Towards the end of the primaries, after it was clear that Clinton couldn't win, but before she dropped out, I began to wonder about the US as a whole and, quietly, began to think there was no way Obama could be elected president.

A recent poll convinced me I was right. John McCain's cynical but brilliant choice of a woman, as his running-mate was the master-stroke.

If the CNN story, that 30% of Clinton's supporters are going to vote for McCain, is true (or even close to it), Obama doesn't have a chance in hell.

The elephant in the room is race, is skin colour. Half-white, Barack Obama is still "black" and there are one hell of a lot of Americans who — no matter what they say in public or even what they tell themselves — will be unable to pull a lever for a "nigger" as president.

Couple that with the aging second-generation cohort of feminists who thought — it's time, damn it! — that Hillary Clinton was going to take the White House on behalf of the "second sex" and who will vote for anyone but Obama out of spite, and the fix is on.

McCain may be a liar; McCain may not know much about the economy; McCain might even be in the early stages of senility, but he's not black — he's white.

And the United States' racial divide will reveal itself in the voting booth. John McCain is going to have the largest presidential landslide since the war criminal, common criminal and general liar Richard Nixon destroyed George McGovern is '72.

This will be a disaster for the people of the United States and for the people of the world. I don't want it to happen. But unless McCain has a stroke onstage during one of the presidential debates, he's going to walk away with the election.

By naming a woman as his running-mate, he's guaranteed it.

I haven't yet watched Obama's acceptance speech; once I have, it's conceivable I'll take back everything I said above.

And I hope I do.

But I'm not holding my breath.

God help us all.

Comments

[pink-siamese.livejournal.com]

It was a pretty fucking awesome speech.

[emperor3d.livejournal.com]

I do think having a woman on his side clenched a few things.
Regardless, I don't think either candidate will be president.
Kind of a weird statement right?

I'm bookmarking this entry and I advise you to 'save as memory'.

I have spoken. Dunh dunh dunh.

[colinmarshall.livejournal.com]

"God help us all"? Seriously? I actively dislike all four politicians at the core of the 2008 election — and actually live in America — and even I'm not that fearful.

[miyyu.livejournal.com]

I have a similar fear. I think that race is indeed the elephant in the room and there are many, many people in this country who say they will vote Democrat but in the privacy of a voting both just won't be able to vote for a black man, even though they would never ever say it in public. I think exit polls might even reflect this. I also think that "Obama lacks experience" is often code for "Obama's not white and we can't have that."

However, my comfort is, even McCain will be better than Bush. I hope.

[mijopo.livejournal.com]

I don't know, it's a coin flip to my mind. McCain's VP selection helped him, though. There was a time I thought the Democrats couldn't lose this one, now I'm not so sure. The Iraq war has become a much smaller issue for many and even if it becomes a bigger issue, McCain, by many accounts was right on the troop surge and Obama wasn't. What was once Obama's trump card seems to have negated at best or become McCain's trump card at worst.

BTW, I don't think Obama voted against the war. He certainly spoke against it publicly, but wasn't yet in the Senate when the initial vote was taken. And when he did join the Senate he voted, on more than one occasion to continue funding it.

[sooguy.livejournal.com]

Interesting comments.

How many beer was this fuelled by? Not saying you don't have something there, just wondering how to calibrate your comments.

[sck5000.livejournal.com]

Since I know how much you enjoy being wrong, I'll put my prediction in early: Obama will win by 3%.

All I can guarantee is that Pennsylvania will vote Obama

[jade-noir.livejournal.com]

My America point of view is still locked into a civil war. And this is my admittedly biased and prejudice mind-set: It's a shame we must yield to the easily swayed religious, mildly uneducated people who know little to nothing about the world outside of their own. and since most of these people reside in the South, I can say that I have a civil war mentality. (although it would be a terrible occurrence if we were to divide since our government is so polarized, we would have not internal conflicts but foreign conflicts and that is worse.)

Anyway, I hope that Obama wins. He is the best candidate on every single platform that matters to me. (although I have yet to see about his foreign relations)
And that Alaskan lady that McCain got would be a terrible vice president. I would be disgusted if women just voted for her just to support their fellow xx.

If gender is such a huge issue why doesn't Obama get Hilary or another completely capable woman as his vice president?

And as far as race is concerned, whenever one of my friends(oh I only have one friend...nevermind) says anything about Obama in praise/etc, just to be annoying, I say, "For christ's sake, he's not even black!" Because I don't see Obama is black at all. Sure he's dark skinned but that's not what really matters. Behind a lot of dark skinned individuals in America there is a contempt for white people, a culture that as a good voting citizen would not vote for. So no, I would not elect a black president because he or she would not be supporting my interests for education and economy, etc. But when I use the term 'black' I am not referring to skin color but the far end of an extremist culture.