Memo to Self: Two Electoral Predictions, for the Record

[ed_rex]

The first, regarding the upcoming Canadian federal election, posted as a response in canpolitk.

1&2. I think Harper is (will be) going to the polls because he figures it's his last chance at a majority because of the faltering economy.

3. I checked off the NDP because they already hold my riding, but ... but I'm not at all happy with the party and will be giving the Greens a serious look before I make up my mind.

And for the record (here and if anyone cares), I stand by my prediction that Dion's Liberals are going to shock the chattering classes and the blogosphere by winning a majority.

The second, regarding the upcoming US election, in my previous entry.

Comments

[sooguy.livejournal.com]

The Liberals a majority? **raised eyebrow**

I'll buy you a beer if that comes to pass my friend.

I have no freaking clue which way the Canadian election is going to go.

I used to feel my personal views fit best with the NDP, but Layton has taken the party too far by trying to be anti-Liberal and anti-Conservative. They seem a little to knee-jerk lately for me, basing policy on what the other guy is not doing or doing and they don't like.

In particular I am thinking about their views on the military and Afghanistan.

I am leaning towards GREEN, but will probably wait and see how things come down the pipe and the local candidates in particular shape up.

I agree with you though, I think Harper is calling the election because he is scared, not because he thinks its winnable. He sounds like a spurned lover in my opinion.

Dion Will Fool the "Experts" Yet Again

[ed-rex.livejournal.com]

The Liberals a majority? **raised eyebrow**

I'll buy you a beer if that comes to pass my friend.

That's been my analysis since Dion won the leadership. I remember being quite pissed off with myself for buying into all the "expert" commentary that advised he had no chance, that the fight was one between (sigh) Rae and (shudder) that sleazy "philosopher", it-depends-on-how-you-define-'torture' Ignatief. (Ahem. Sorry. I really despise that man. Where the hell was I.)

Right, a few days before the convention, my reading between the lines gave me a gut feeling that Dion actually did have a chance. I suggested as much to a friend, but he quoted expert after expert and I lost my chance at bragging rights.

Dion's not charismatic, but he's one of those people who keep beavering away — in his case, unless I've been sorely mis-informed, he's been working the Liberal grass-roots ever since he won the leadership, just as he did to win it in the first place.

Or at least, so I hope. A Conservative majority scares hell out of me. After eight years south of the border, we've seen what a corrupt and incompetent disaster a neo-con government will be.

As for the NDP, I'm a life-long (though not card-carrying) 'Dipper and probably considerably to the left of you — or most of the NDP, for that matter.

But I know longer feel as though the NDP itself even knows what it stands for anymore, beyond, as you said, being against the Liberals and the Tories and in favour of such social programs as haven't already been dismantled or starved. But neither Layton nor the Party seem to have any kind of vision for the future any more (and frankly, haven't since before the days of Ed Broadbent).

I'm not leaning Green, but I'm curious. What little I've seen of Elizabeth May I like a lot. She seems willing to acknowledge complexity and think creatively, but I don't know much about the party's economic or political policies and I worry that they are still the Libertarian loons they were under the previous leader (Harris?).

He sounds like a spurned lover in my opinion.

Lovely!