Bourgeois Radical?

[ed_rex]

No doubt to the disappointment of some of you, I will be casting a ballot this evening, neither declining it, nor even simply refusing to show up at the poll.

Though I am not excited by what I expect to be the outcome - a Tory government whose degree of neoconservative, self-loathing, Republican America worship remains to be seen - I still hope for a minority government, one which may be kept somewhat in check by a stronger NDP prescence.

That said, I would not expect revolutionary change even if it were an NDP government - what was once a (relatively) radical democratic socialist movement has become a left-liberal party, spending too much of its time defending such self-evident Good Things as universal medical care and fundamental human rights, without a corresponding vision of what might this an even better country in which to live. Any thoughts of challenging the economic status quo - as opposed to reigning in its worst excesses - are put aside for another era. I'll vote for the NDP because I believe they are an effective opposition party - and will be especially so if they hold the balance of power in a minority situation - not because I believe they have a vision for the future.

As befits the end of a campaign of much vented heat but little directed light, I too have placed my bet on the outcome of tonight's race.

For the record:

Conservatives:---> 132
Liberals:--------> 85
Bloc:------------> 47
NDP:-------------> 42
Green:-----------> 1
Independent:-----> 1

You can all have a good laugh at my expense in a few hours.

Comments

[riotxsta.livejournal.com]

this is a sad sad day

[stolen-identity.livejournal.com]

interesting projection. i'll laugh if that actually comes true! and then i'll think you've got some kind of trick up your sleeve.

[tacky-tramp.livejournal.com]

Good luck.

[beable]

While I would love to see a Green seat (so that goddamn networks would fucking take them seriously enough to let into the debates), I don't particularly think it is likely. Even if the Ottawa citizen endorsed the green candidate for our riding (one of the more even ones for the 4 non-bloc parties). And even if they have some BC hopes.

I'd also love to see such a strong NDP. I'm not sure that that is particularly likely either.

But I could just be a pessimist.

[amaaanda.livejournal.com]

I hope that there is a minority government long enough for the liberals to revamp themselves and get a new leader. And find a way to cut back on he corruption.

[offermeescape.livejournal.com]

If the NDP get 42 seats as you say, I owe you a beer.

If they get 50, you owe me a beer. That's my prediction there.

Fair? :P I'm in agreement with you that it'll be a Tory minority. They won't be able to get away with too much. ;)

[colinmarshall.livejournal.com]

forcemajeure had some interesting points about the election, which I'll reproduce below for your perusal:

let me be the first to predict that not only will we have Prime Minister Harper, but he'll have a majority government. The polls tell the whole story at this point. The whole Liberal strategy depended on fearful NDP voters switching to the Liberals at the last minute, but I think soft Liberal voters are capitulating, which is why the Liberals can't even keep their heads above 30%. It's far from clear that the Liberals will even sit as the official opposition.

It seems pretty clear Harper will break 40%, and it's hard to construct a mathematical scenario in which 40% is insufficient for a Conservative majority, unless you assume all of that surge is coming from Francophone Québec, or you assume that the NDP vote collapses into the single digits.

I hope we do get a solid Tory majority, because I think we need a Tory government to establish that we aren't some third-world country where the party in power always wins no matter what misdeeds they commit, but more importantly because I don't want the BQ to have any influence or leverage. Harper has hinted at a Conservative-NDP minority government but, uh, I don't think that's happening -- if Paul Martin can't keep Jack Layton happy, no one can -- and I don't want the BQ having the balance of power. So a clear-cut majority of either the Liberals or the Conservatives would be preferable to any other outcome, in my view.

I'm a Harper optimist. I think he's got a shot at being a good PM, and I've warmed up to the guy over time, even though I'd prefer someone more like Bernard Lord. And isn't it cool that for once a western Anglophone party leader promises to improve his French and actually does it?

The time in the wilderness will be healthy for the Liberals. It's an opportunity to clear out a lot of accumulated baggage from the Chrétien era and to formulate some kind of program that consists of something more than scaring people half to death about the opposition, and offering up goodies at election time like a Carnival krewe during Mardi Gras. The Liberals need a Tony Blair, and some time on the opposition benches to contemplate the idea that the federal government is not a wholly owned subsidiary of the Parti libéral du Canada.

Because I'm only about 65% up on my Canadian politics, that only makes about 65% sense to me, but maybe you'll find it pertinent. Or not.

[sooguy.livejournal.com]

Interesting predictions. You sure you haven't been tinkering with this post as the vote has unfolded?

I am sure it will still change in the hours to come but at 11:20pm it now stands at:

Cons ---> 122
Liberals-> 104
Bloc --> 50
NDP --> 31
Independent --> 1

The liberals didn't nearly implode as much as some predicted.

[ssurprize.livejournal.com]

I never understood politics... I'd be the anarchist!

[jak-ofalltrades.livejournal.com]

Sadly there were no green seats won, but your prediction of Independent was correct.

I cast my ballott too, but now I wish I could go change it back.

I have to say I'm not dissapointed by the outcome. I think a change is necessary (though I wish the NDP could have won, but they didn't...and most likely never will). But the Conservatives will be held in check by the NDP/Liberals (and the Bloq in some issues).

What I am happiest about is the fact that the Liberals will be getting a new leader. I think they need someone a little younger than Martin was. I think more young Canadian voters could relate.

And unlike some people, I'm not happy that the GST will be going to 5%. But then I'm a funny duck like that.

Good luck in Toronto, we all know how it's going to be treated from this point on.